{"text_format":"1","workbook":"xlsx","n_sheets":5,"sheets":["Resumen pronósticos","Método Promedio móvil simple","Método Promedio móvil ponderado","Método suavizado exponencial","Método de Holt"],"not_rendered":{"charts":5,"images":4,"macros":1,"external_links":0,"defined_names":105,"comments":0,"pivot_tables":0},"unopened":[],"bounds":{"document_bytes":16777216,"sheet_cells":100000,"rows_first":2000,"rows_last":500,"rows_between":2000,"halvings":0,"cell_chars":16384,"cell_head_chars":4096},"cells_cut":0,"cells_raw":0,"read":"whole","date_system":"1900"}

{"sheet":"Resumen pronósticos","index":0,"n_rows":46,"n_cols":11,"rows_kept":46,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[5,0,6,2]]}
["CALCULADORA PRONÓSTICOS"]
["  --  RESUMEN DE MODELOS",null,null,null,"ERROR","Periodo\n(t)","Promedio móvil simple","Promedio movil ponderado","Suavización exponencial simple","Suavización exponencial doble (Holt)","Método de Winter"]
["Datos previos",null,null,null,"MAD:"," -",{"$f":"'Método Promedio móvil simple'!L10","v":188.55555555555549},{"$f":"'Método Promedio móvil ponderado'!L10","v":134.93333333333396},{"$f":"'Método suavizado exponencial'!L10","v":134.94117647058823},{"$f":"'Método de Holt'!L10","v":154.11261454218314}]
["Cantidad de periodos:",{"$f":"COUNTA(C9:C1048576)","v":18},null,null,"MSD:"," -",{"$f":"'Método Promedio móvil simple'!L11","v":49973.933333333334},{"$f":"'Método Promedio móvil ponderado'!L11","v":22644.666666666864},{"$f":"'Método suavizado exponencial'!L11","v":22362.941176470587},{"$f":"'Método de Holt'!L11","v":38740.041803996603}]
[" *Promedio móvil, n=",3,null,null,"MAPE:"," -",{"$f":"'Método Promedio móvil simple'!L12","v":0.16978893835269951},{"$f":"'Método Promedio móvil ponderado'!L12","v":0.12230606331104027},{"$f":"'Método suavizado exponencial'!L12","v":0.12328533093822924},{"$f":"'Método de Holt'!L12","v":0.15079592630738028}]
["Considere eliminar los valores de datos que estén asociados con eventos anormales y únicos (causas especiales)."]
[null,null,null,null,"PRONÓSTICO:",{"$f":"B4+1","v":19},1177.3333333333333,1098.0000000000102,1098,1127.9187725520853]
["Periodo\n(t)","Nombre periodo","Demanda (Dt)"]
[1," -",1250,null,null,null,false]
[2," -",1160,null,null,null,true,true,true,true]
[3," -",980]
[4," -",850]
[5," -",930]
[6," -",1215]
[7," -",1350]
[8," -",1486]
[9," -",1321]
[10," -",1246]
[11," -",1132]
[12," -",854]
[13," -",950]
[14," -",1010]
[15," -",1167]
[16," -",1289]
[17," -",1145]
[18," -",1098]
[]
[null,null,null,null,"Recomendación"]
[null,null,null,null,"Pronósticar un máximo de 6 periodos."]
[]
[null,null,null,null,"Error"]
[null,null,null,null,"Los valores de error también se denominan residuos. Los valores de error son las diferencias entre los valores observados y los pronosticados."]
[]
[null,null,null,null,"MAPE:"]
[null,null,null,null,"El error porcentual absoluto medio (MAPE) expresa la exactitud como un porcentaje del error."]
[null,null,null,null,"Por ejemplo, si el MAPE es 5, en promedio, el pronóstico está errado en un 5%."]
[null,null,null,null,"Valores más pequeños indican un mejor ajuste."]
[null,null,null,null,"MAPE es generalmente la medición más recomendable."]
[]
[null,null,null,null,"Debería examinar el ajuste del modelo para garantizar que el modelo sigue los datos de manera estrecha, particularmente al final de las series."]
[]
[null,null,null,null,"MAD"]
[null,null,null,null,"La desviación absoluta de la media (MAD) expresa exactitud en las mismas unidades que los datos, lo que ayuda a conceptualizar la cantidad del error."]
[]
[null,null,null,null,"MSD"]
[null,null,null,null,"La desviación cuadrática media (MSD) mide la exactitud de los valores ajustados de las series de tiempo."]

{"sheet":"Método Promedio móvil simple","index":1,"n_rows":38,"n_cols":13,"rows_kept":38,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["CALCULADORA PRONÓSTICOS",null,null,null,"Referencia:","https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eq-o_-wtXd0&list=PLRuoXZJSuGuVDm_9BwF7KKL_y2yvqPRS9"]
["MODELO  PROMEDIO MÓVIL SIMPLE"]
[]
["Periodo (t)","Ventas (Dt)","Pronóstico (FITt)","Error","Error ABS","Error^2","MAPE",null,null,null,"Cantidad de datos anteriores para pronosticar"]
[1,1250,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"n=",{"$f":"'Resumen pronósticos'!B5","v":3}]
[2,1160]
[3,980]
[4,850,{"$f":"(B5+B6+B7)/$L$5","v":1130},{"$f":"B8-C8","v":-280},{"$f":"ABS(D8)","v":280},{"$f":"D8^2","v":78400},{"$f":"ABS(D8/B8)*100%","v":0.32941176470588235},null,null,null,"ERROR"]
[5,930,{"$f":"(B6+B7+B8)/$L$5","v":996.66666666666663},{"$f":"B9-C9","v":-66.666666666666629},{"$f":"ABS(D9)","v":66.666666666666629},{"$f":"D9^2","v":4444.4444444444398},{"$f":"ABS(D9/B9)*100%","v":7.1684587813620027E-2},null,null,null,"Media error:",{"$f":"AVERAGE(D8:D22)","v":8.0666666666666895},"Es la media del error (pronóstico - demanda)"]
[6,1215,920,295,295,87025,0.24279835390946503,null,null,null,"MAD:",{"$f":"AVERAGE(E8:E22)","v":188.55555555555549},"Es la media absoluta del error (pronóstico - demanda)"]
[7,1350,998.33333333333337,351.66666666666663,351.66666666666663,123669.44444444442,0.2604938271604938,null,null,null,"MSD:",{"$f":"AVERAGE(F8:F22)","v":49973.933333333334},"Es la media cuadrática del error."]
[8,1486,1165,321,321,103041,0.21601615074024227,null,null,null,"MAPE:",{"$f":"AVERAGE(G8:G22)","v":0.16978893835269951}]
[9,1321,1350.3333333333333,-29.333333333333258,29.333333333333258,860.44444444444002,2.2205399949533123E-2]
[10,1246,1385.6666666666667,-139.66666666666674,139.66666666666674,19506.777777777799,0.11209202782236496]
[11,1132,1351,-219,219,47961,0.19346289752650175]
[12,854,1233,-379,379,143641,0.44379391100702575]
[13,950,1077.3333333333333,-127.33333333333326,127.33333333333326,16213.777777777759,0.13403508771929817]
[14,1010,978.66666666666663,31.333333333333371,31.333333333333371,981.7777777777801,3.102310231023106E-2]
[15,1167,938,229,229,52441,0.19622964867180806]
[16,1289,1042.3333333333333,246.66666666666674,246.66666666666674,60844.444444444482,0.19136281355055604]
[17,1145,1155.3333333333333,-10.333333333333258,10.333333333333258,106.77777777777621,9.0247452692866874E-3]
[18,1098,1200.3333333333333,-102.33333333333326,102.33333333333326,10472.111111111095,9.3199757134183298E-2]
[19,null,1177.3333333333333]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Sobre este modelo:"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"n es el número de periodos que se juntarán en el promedio"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Error: ventas - pronóstico del periodo"]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"para encontrar un mejor pronóstico se pueden ir probando los valores de \"n\""]

{"sheet":"Método Promedio móvil ponderado","index":2,"n_rows":40,"n_cols":16,"rows_kept":40,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["CALCULADORA PRONÓSTICOS",null,null,null,"Referencia:","https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSV1WMQc4Hk&list=PLRuoXZJSuGuVDm_9BwF7KKL_y2yvqPRS9&index=2"]
["MODELO  PROMEDIO MÓVIL PONDERADO"]
[]
["Periodo (t)","Ventas (Dt)","Pronóstico (FITt)","Error","Error ABS","Error^2","MAPE",null,null,null,"Cantidad de datos anteriores para pronosticar"]
[1,1250,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"n=",3,null,null,"t","w"]
[2,1160,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,1,0]
[3,980,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,2,8.9261931179862592E-15]
[4,850,{"$f":"(B5*$P$6)+(B6*$P$7)+(B7*$P$8)","v":980.00000000001035},{"$f":"B8-C8","v":-130.00000000001035},{"$f":"ABS(D8)","v":130.00000000001035},{"$f":"D8^2","v":16900.000000002688},{"$f":"ABS(D8/B8)*100%","v":0.1529411764706004},null,null,null,"ERROR",null,null,null,3,1]
[5,930,{"$f":"(B6*$P$6)+(B7*$P$7)+(B8*$P$8)","v":850.00000000000875},{"$f":"B9-C9","v":79.999999999991246},{"$f":"ABS(D9)","v":79.999999999991246},{"$f":"D9^2","v":6399.9999999985994},{"$f":"ABS(D9/B9)*100%","v":8.602150537633467E-2},null,null,null,"Media error:",{"$f":"AVERAGE(D8:D22)","v":7.8666666666565561},"Es la media del error (pronóstico - demanda)",null,"suma",{"$f":"SUM(P6:P8)","v":1.0000000000000089}]
[6,1215,930.00000000000762,284.99999999999238,284.99999999999238,81224.999999995664,0.23456790123456164,null,null,null,"MAD:",{"$f":"AVERAGE(E8:E22)","v":134.93333333333396},"Es la media absoluta del error (pronóstico - demanda)"]
[7,1350,1215.0000000000084,134.99999999999159,134.99999999999159,18224.99999999773,9.9999999999993774E-2,null,null,null,"MSD:",{"$f":"AVERAGE(F8:F22)","v":22644.666666666864},"Es la media cuadrática del error."]
[8,1486,1350.0000000000109,135.99999999998909,135.99999999998909,18495.999999997031,9.1520861372805573E-2,null,null,null,"MAPE:",{"$f":"AVERAGE(G8:G22)","v":0.12230606331104027}]
[9,1321,1486.0000000000121,-165.00000000001205,165.00000000001205,27225.000000003976,0.12490537471613328]
[10,1246,1321.0000000000132,-75.000000000013188,75.000000000013188,5625.0000000019782,6.0192616372402238E-2]
[11,1132,1246.0000000000118,-114.00000000001182,114.00000000001182,12996.000000002696,0.10070671378092917]
[12,854,1132.0000000000111,-278.00000000001114,278.00000000001114,77284.000000006199,0.32552693208432221]
[13,950,854.00000000001012,95.999999999989882,95.999999999989882,9215.9999999980573,0.10105263157893672]
[14,1010,950.00000000000762,59.999999999992383,59.999999999992383,3599.999999999086,5.9405940594051868E-2]
[15,1167,1010.0000000000085,156.99999999999147,156.99999999999147,24648.999999997322,0.13453299057411439]
[16,1289,1167.0000000000091,121.99999999999091,121.99999999999091,14883.999999997781,9.4647013188511181E-2]
[17,1145,1289.0000000000105,-144.00000000001046,144.00000000001046,20736.000000003012,0.12576419213974713]
[18,1098,1145.0000000000116,-47.000000000011596,47.000000000011596,2209.00000000109,4.2805100182159925E-2]
[19,null,1098.0000000000102]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Sobre este modelo:"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"n es el número de periodos que se juntarán en el promedio"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Error: ventas - pronóstico del periodo"]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"para encontrar un mejor pronóstico se usa SOLVER en la asignación de pesos de los periodos."]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Su suma tiene que ser = 1, además que tienen que ser entre 0 y 1."]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"La idea es que se tenga el mínimo error absoluto posible."]

{"sheet":"Método suavizado exponencial","index":3,"n_rows":43,"n_cols":13,"rows_kept":43,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["CALCULADORA PRONÓSTICOS",null,null,null,"Referencia:","https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yO9DPShDlI"]
["MODELO SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE"]
[]
["Periodo (t)","Ventas (Dt)","Pronóstico (FITt)","Error","Error ABS","Error^2","MAPE"]
[1,1250,{"$f":"(B5)","v":1250},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Alpha:",1]
[2,1160,{"$f":"C5+$L$5*(B5-C5)","v":1250},{"$f":"B6-C6","v":-90},{"$f":"ABS(D6)","v":90},{"$f":"D6^2","v":8100},{"$f":"ABS(D6/B6)*100%","v":7.7586206896551727E-2}]
[3,980,{"$f":"C6+$L$5*(B6-C6)","v":1160},{"$f":"B7-C7","v":-180},{"$f":"ABS(D7)","v":180},{"$f":"D7^2","v":32400},{"$f":"ABS(D7/B7)*100%","v":0.18367346938775511}]
[4,850,980,-130,130,16900,0.15294117647058825,null,null,null,"ERROR"]
[5,930,850,80,80,6400,8.6021505376344093E-2,null,null,null,"Media error:",{"$f":"AVERAGE(D6:D22)","v":-8.9411764705882355},"Es la media del error (pronóstico - demanda)"]
[6,1215,930,285,285,81225,0.23456790123456789,null,null,null,"MAD:",{"$f":"AVERAGE(E6:E22)","v":134.94117647058823},"Es la media absoluta del error (pronóstico - demanda)"]
[7,1350,1215,135,135,18225,0.1,null,null,null,"MSD:",{"$f":"AVERAGE(F6:F22)","v":22362.941176470587},"Es la media cuadrática del error."]
[8,1486,1350,136,136,18496,9.1520861372812914E-2,null,null,null,"MAPE:",{"$f":"AVERAGE(G6:G22)","v":0.12328533093822924}]
[9,1321,1486,-165,165,27225,0.12490537471612415]
[10,1246,1321,-75,75,5625,6.0192616372391657E-2]
[11,1132,1246,-114,114,12996,0.10070671378091872]
[12,854,1132,-278,278,77284,0.32552693208430911]
[13,950,854,96,96,9216,0.10105263157894737]
[14,1010,950,60,60,3600,5.9405940594059403E-2]
[15,1167,1010,157,157,24649,0.13453299057412169]
[16,1289,1167,122,122,14884,9.4647013188518231E-2]
[17,1145,1289,-144,144,20736,0.125764192139738]
[18,1098,1145,-47,47,2209,4.2805100182149364E-2]
[19,null,1098]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Sobre este modelo:"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Considera el periodo anterior, no hace falta muchos datos históricos"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"para datos que no presenten tendencia. Si no es mejor usar el "]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"método de HOLT."]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Lo ideal es usar SOLVER para encontrar alpha (de 0 a 1) "]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Si es 0 es porque hay volatilidad en los datos, 1 es estabilidad"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"El objetivo es encontrar el mínimo valor de error absoluto."]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Error: ventas - pronóstico del periodo"]

{"sheet":"Método de Holt","index":4,"n_rows":43,"n_cols":13,"rows_kept":43,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["CALCULADORA PRONÓSTICOS",null,null,null,"Referencia:","https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCXTJeTZZww&list=PL8RCfdSX2W08raXUojgXCg4nq7GtzLkaB"]
["MÉTODO HOLT"]
[]
["Periodo (t)","Ventas (Dt)","Valor atenuado (At)","Tendencia (Tt)","Pronóstico (FITt)","Error","Error ABS","Error^2","MAPE"]
[1,1250,{"$f":"(B5)","v":1250},0,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Alpha:",1.8226507625993035E-2]
[2,1160,{"$f":"$L$5*B6+(1-$L$5)*(C5+D5)","v":1248.3596143136608},{"$f":"$L$6*(C6-C5)+(1-$L$6)*D5","v":-0.63986976050935884},{"$f":"C5+D5","v":1250},{"$f":"B6-E6","v":-90},{"$f":"ABS(F6)","v":90},{"$f":"F6^2","v":8100},{"$f":"ABS(F6/B6)*100%","v":7.7586206896551727E-2},null,"Beta:",0.39007275291297039]
[3,980,{"$f":"$L$5*B7+(1-$L$5)*(C6+D6)","v":1242.8401485874247},{"$f":"$L$6*(C7-C6)+(1-$L$6)*D6","v":-2.543267191963432},{"$f":"C6+D6","v":1247.7197445531515},{"$f":"B7-E7","v":-267.71974455315149},{"$f":"ABS(F7)","v":267.71974455315149},{"$f":"F7^2","v":71673.86162360468},{"$f":"ABS(F7/B7)*100%","v":0.27318341280933828}]
[4,850,1233.1831323103056,-5.3181468811422103,1240.2968813954612,-390.29688139546124,390.29688139546124,152331.65562702273,0.45917280164171909,null,"ERROR"]
[5,930,1222.4359470007225,-7.4358668465944451,1227.8649854291634,-297.86498542916343,297.86498542916343,88723.549544715745,0.32028493056899293,null,"Media error:",{"$f":"AVERAGE(F6:F22)","v":-68.093667227824028},"Es la media del error (pronóstico - demanda)"]
[6,1215,1215.0000786931982,-7.4358674164633705,1215.000080154128,-8.0154127999776392E-5,8.0154127999776392E-5,6.4246842354045378E-9,6.5970475719980563E-8,null,"MAD:",{"$f":"AVERAGE(G6:G22)","v":154.11261454218314},"Es la media absoluta del error (pronóstico - demanda)"]
[7,1350,1210.1603182661138,-6.4231968162597344,1207.5642112767348,142.4357887232652,142.4357887232652,20287.953909218642,0.10550799164686311,null,"MSD:",{"$f":"AVERAGE(H6:H22)","v":38740.041803996603},"Es la media cuadrática del error."]
[8,1486,1208.8817879582832,-4.4164025884976139,1203.7371214498542,282.26287855014584,282.26287855014584,79672.332607414384,0.1899481013123458,null,"MAPE:",{"$f":"AVERAGE(I6:I22)","v":0.15079592630738028}]
[9,1321,1206.5894044120353,-3.5878806334477158,1204.4653853697855,116.53461463021449,116.53461463021449,13580.316407012602,8.821696792597615E-2]
[10,1246,1203.7852358333434,-3.282175914758001,1203.0015237785876,42.998476221412375,42.998476221412375,1848.8689573633653,3.4509210450571731E-2]
[11,1132,1199.2544883745757,-3.7692096541386979,1200.5030599185854,-68.50305991858545,68.50305991858545,4692.6692182093084,6.0515070599457113E-2]
[12,854,1189.2611946836746,-6.1970552487202646,1195.485278720437,-341.48527872043701,341.48527872043701,116612.19558277456,0.39986566594898948]
[13,950,1178.8161941201977,-7.8540629718711497,1183.0641394349543,-233.06413943495431,233.06413943495431,54318.893090555823,0.2453306730894256]
[14,1010,1168.0283536374554,-8.9984496419707973,1170.9621311483265,-160.96213114832653,160.96213114832653,25908.807663811072,0.15936844668151143]
[15,1167,1159.1751710110907,-8.9417849372858917,1159.0299039954846,7.9700960045154261,7.9700960045154261,63.522430321192758,6.8295595582822848E-3]
[16,1289,1152.7626168207639,-7.9552009370674197,1150.2333860738047,138.7666139261953,138.7666139261953,19256.173140541741,0.10765447162621823]
[17,1145,1144.8109260195608,-7.95383172870772,1144.8074158836964,0.19258411630357841,0.19258411630357841,3.7088641852430215E-2,1.6819573476295057E-4]
[18,1098,1136.1488651654372,-8.2300926133518537,1136.8570942908532,-38.857094290853183,38.857094290853183,1509.8737767282551,3.538897476398286E-2]
[19,null,null,null,1127.9187725520853]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Sobre este modelo:"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Considera el periodo anterior, no hace falta muchos datos históricos"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"para datos que presentan tendencia."]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Utiliza como base el método de suavizado exponencial"]
[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Lo ideal es usar SOLVER para encontrar alpha y betha (de 0 a 1) "]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Si es 0 es porque hay volatilidad en los datos, 1 es estabilidad"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"El objetivo es encontrar el mínimo valor de error absoluto."]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Error: ventas - pronóstico del periodo"]